Ruble Poised for Weekly Advance Versus Dollar: Inside Russia

The ruble rose against the greenback in Moscow, poised for its first weekly gain in three. The Russian currency is on course for a seventh day of advances against the yuan, set for the longest winning streak since April.

* The Finance Ministry’s proposal for a new fiscal rule may curb the ruble’s appreciation with extra revenues being used to buy FX of “friendly” nations under the mechanism, Mikhail Shulgin, an analyst with Otkritie Research, wrote in a note

** “Nevertheless, we don’t rule out the ruble trying to break into the range of 50-55 per dollar during the July tax period”, he said, adding that a sudden move to 65/$ due to the impact of Covid and recession risks on oil would allow tactical USD/RUB short positions

* Ruble advances 1% to 57.7275/$, +5.3% for the week

** Adds 1.5% versus euro to 57.8975, +7.7% for week

* The ruble may appreciate to 8.4 versus the yuan in the short-term, according to Iskander Lutsko, strategist at ITI Capital in Moscow

** The parameters of the fiscal rule may be announced by the end of this month or in August, after which “everything will jump”, he said by email

* Ruble +1.2% to 8.55 versus the yuan, +8.4% for the week

* Yields on ruble bond bonds due 2031 -4 bps to 8.41%

* Russia’s MOEX Index +0.2% to 2,066.83

* Brent crude +0.6% to $99.71 per barrel

15.07.2022
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